In his article The Weight of Geopolitics, Robert Kagan seeks to answer the question of why democracy is in retreat worldwide.[1] The main claim he makes to answer this question is that political ideas within nations follow the relative success of countries holding those ideas within the geopolitical sphere.[2] In his telling, this is both because of hard power considerations, like the U.S. imposing democracy on Japan in the aftermath of World War II, and soft power aspects, like the idea that the success or failure of other democratic regimes in geopolitics impacts people’s perceptions of democracy as “people tend to follow winners.”[3] However, it is important to note Kagan never uses the specific phraseology of soft and hard power. The methodology used is that of small-n analysis. Kagan analyzes a number of case studies various periods in history that democracy either advanced or retreated worldwide and their connection to shifting geopolitics.[4] The data he uses in analyzing these case studies is sourced from a number of historical works and scholarly articles on waves of democratization and periods of democratic retreat throughout history. The conclusion he reaches at the end of his analysis is that if the United States or other liberal democracies don’t reassert themselves on the world stage, both in promoting democracy and in making democracy appealing through their example, past waves of democracy will be reversed. [5]
[1] Robert Kagan, “The Weight of Geopolitics,” Journal of Democracy 26, no. 1 (January 7, 2015): 21–31.
[2] Ibid. 21.
[3] Ibid. 23.
[4] Ibid. 22-26.
[5] Ibid. 29.